The Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists listed the following as the 5 greatest downside risks to their GDP forecasts for 2006 (average prediction cut from 3.0% growth to 2.8%):

1) Energy Prices (43%); 2) Housing Market (15%); 3) Higher than expected interest rates (13%); 4) Slower than expected consumer spending (13%); 5) Slower than expected business spending (11%)

CPI is predicted to rise by 3.3% in November of 2006 and by 2.8% in May of 2007j.

When asked how high oil prices would need to rise to threaten economic expansion the average of responses was $98.22 per barrel.  If fuel prices rose to $4.08 per gallon, expansion would be similarly threatened in the opinons of the economists.