John Kay: The Hedgehog and the Fox
British economist, John Kay has just recently published a new book, “The Hare and the Tortoise,” a collection of essays. Not yet available in America, it has been available in England since June 5th and may be ordered through Amazon.UK. A quick peruse of his website will soon whet anyone’s appetite for more.
In one recent essay published at Johnkay.com, he pnders the conclusions of Philip Tetlock’s new book Expert Political Judgment (Princeton University Press) and reframes the oft used concept of the hedgehog and the fox to explain why, as Tetlock’s study found over a period of 20 years and 30,000 predictions from 300 experts, that amateur prognosticators performed better than the experts. As a small consolation he found that experts did perform better than chimps who answer randomly.
In considering the seemingly paradoxical finding he asks the question, “Why are the predictions of well known experts worse than those of people who linger in obscurity? Isaiah Berlin’s distinction between the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, and the fox, who knows many little things, provides a clue to the answer.”
The quotation itself is based on a line found among the fragments of the Greek poet Archilochus which says: “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows just one.” For those familiar with Jim Collins’ book, “Good to Great,” it is the “hedgehog concept” that offers superiority but for Kay it is the inherent qualities of the fox that, for differing reasons, lend advantage in a complex world.
Kay writes, “But these hedgehog characteristics are exactly those that politicians, journalists and business leaders demand of advisers and commentators. Harry Truman famously sought a one-armed economist, who would never say: “On the one hand, then on the other.” Broadcast media look for snappy soundbites. Corporate executives demand “the elevator pitch” for new ideas. Fund managers want specific forecasts. Business audiences do not want to hear that the world is a complex and uncertain place. But, unfortunately, it is.”
